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Nuclear power insights J.W.Storm van Leeuwen Independent consultant Ceedata Consultancy storm@ceedata.nl
Nuclear power is an emotionally charged issue. Heated discussions indicate widely different viewpoints and widely different levels of knowledge. Due to the exceedingly complexity of the issues related to nuclear power, misunderstandings and fallacies may easily trouble the discussion. This website aims at supplying insights in a number of issues from a scientific point of view. A number of opinions and claims on the matter of nuclear power are tested against common scientific wisdom and basic physical laws. Financial and economic issues are not or indirectly addressed.
Insight items The insight items are presented as separate brief self-supporting texts, intended to keep the content accessible to policy makers and a broad public not well introduced into nuclear matters. Each text can be read independently of the other and in arbitrary order. In a number cases this set-up may result in some overlap of different texts. Many of the insight texts have diagrams with captions added from the original publications, giving more detailed information. This additional information can be read independently from the main text of an insight item. To keep the items short and easily readable, jargon is avoided as much as possible and references to original sources are omitted. These references can be found in the original reports the brief texts are based on: Nuclear power, the energy balance, February 2008 Health risks of nuclear power, November 2010 Nuclear power, energy security and CO2 emission, May 2012 All three full reports are available as pdf files on this website, see page reports. These reports are the results of a comprehensive study and intensive correspondence with numerous experts all over the world during the past years (see about study). Comments are welcome. The author encourages a discussion on scientific arguments. The complete series of Insight items can be downloaded as one pdf document. Communication How is the communication between the nuclear industry at one hand and the politicians and public at the other hand? How open, how sincere and how comprehensive is the information flow from the nuclear industry to policymakers and the public? To which degree is this a two-way communication? i01 Communication nuclear industry - public Complexity and opacity One-sided information and conflict of interests Uncertainties and unknowns Downplaying the hazards Fostering the myths One-way communication i02 Economic vs physical perspective Time horizon Global issues Physical energy analysis System boundaries i03 How controllable is nuclear power? Why nuclear? Which are the arguments of the nuclear industry backing the assertion that nuclear power is safe and indispensable for climate control and energy security? How valid are these arguments? Claims of the nuclear industry Clean Cheap Safe Secure Indispensable Sustainable Bright outlook Nuclear share Present nuclear CO2 emission CO2 trap of nuclear power Greenhouse gases other than CO2 Coal equivalence What means 'energy security'? Fallacies Après nous le dŽéluge i07 How clean is nuclear power? Greenhouse gases Chemicals Radioactive discharges Ecosystem disturbances Depletion of valuable materials Nuclear facts and features What are the unambiguous facts and unique features, any discussion on the adoption of nuclear power should be based on? i08 Unique features of nuclear power Man-made radioactivity Mobilisation of radioactivity Metal as energy source Time frame Complexity Irreversible consequences Isotopes Radioactive decay Ionizing radiation Half-life Nuclear bomb equivalents Spent nuclear fuel Fission products Actinides and minor actinides Activation products Mining waste Operational waste Routine releases Spent nuclear fuel Decommissioning and dismantling waste Isolation from the human environment Geologic repository Mine rehabilitation Technical analysis Which industrial processes and activities are required to make nuclear energy available to the consumer? How does the nuclear energy system technically work, in broad outlines? How much materials and energy are consumed per unit useful energy delivered by nuclear power? i12 Life cycle analysis of the nuclear energy system Nuclear process chain Cradle to grave Energy balance of the nuclear system Full-load years and energy payback time Energy return of energy investment EROEI Methodology of energy analysis i13 Materials and nuclear power from cradle to grave Comparison Specifications of the reference nuclear power system Materials bal;ance of nuclear power from cradle to grave Specifications of the reference wind power system Safety What does the nuclear industry mean with safe nuclear power? In what respects is nuclear power a safe way of energy generation? On what empirical and scientific evidence bases the nuclear industry its opinion? Military and civil nuclear technology are inseparable Proliferation Nuclear terrorism and MOX fuel Reactor safety studies Spent nuclear fuel pools Nuclear safety is not set by safety studies, but by practice Main safety concern: dispersion of radioactivity Quality requirements Bathtub hazard function Bathtub curve and nuclear technology Preventable accidents Energy on credit Paradigm barrier Economic challenge A dangerous misconception Energy is the limiting factor Health risks What are the specific health risks of nuclear power? Are nuclear health effects curable or are they a passing thing? Are nuclear health risks avoidable? Which role are economic appraisals playing in relation with nuclear health risks? i17 Pathways of radioactivity dispersion Routine releases Unauthorized releases Uranium mining Depleted uranium Illegal trade and criminality Transport Cleanup, decommissioning and dismantling of nuclear plants Terrorism Armed conflicts Severe accidents Radioactive decay products Mill tailings Mine reclamation i19 Routine releases of radioactivity Significance Discharges from reactors Interim storage of spent fuel Reprocessing plants i20 Cleanup, decommissioning and dismantling Radioactive structures after closedown Nuclear power plants Reprocessing plants Health risks Radioactive debris and scrap Regulations and economics Meltdown Spent fuel pools Consequences Contamination i22 Health effects of radioactivity in the human body Stochastic and non-stochastic effects Targeted, non-targeted and delayed effects Biomedical aspects of radioactivity Radiation-induced diseases Long time lag Downplay Evidence Health risks resulting from downplaying i24 Limited knowledge on radioactivity Not all radioactivity is measured Troublesome detection of radioactivity Biomedical unknowns i25 Health risks of nuclear power Reliance on models Pathways of radioactive discharges Risk enhancing factors Long time lag Cumulation effects Health risks of nuclear power and economics i26 Economics and nuclear safety Economic vs physical perspective Liability policy Responsibilities De-regulation Relaxation of activity standards Relaxation of exposure standards Relaxation of safety standards Quality control and dependency of inspections Fallacy Increasing health risks Low-level waste Military practice Civil practice Decommissioning and dismantling waste Outlook What does the nuclear industry mean with Ônuclear renaissanceÔ? Which are the advanced technical concepts the expectations of a nuclear renaissance based on? Is the materialization of the nuclear renaissance a matter of politics and communication with the general public, a matter of economics, or are technical issues at stake? Which technical developments might be pivotal? i28 Nuclear renaissance World nuclear capacity Adoption curve How likely? World nuclear capacity Adoption curve How likely is a nuclear renaissance? i29 Adoption of innovative technology History of nuclear power Maturity and obselescence of nuclear power Advanced reactors and concepts of waste reduction Aerospace Plane Advanced uranium recovery Outline Discharges into the environment Practice Costs Historic purpose i32 Recycling of plutonium and uranium (MOX) in LWRs Plutonium energy balance Terrorism threat Uranium View of the nuclear industry Once-through mode Uranium-plutonium breeder concept Breeder cycle New names, no new concepts i34 Partitioning and transmutation Radioactivity of spent nuclear fuel Concept Transmutation Minor actinides Partitioning Outline Feasibility Thorium cycle Uranium-233 Time frame Hybrid reactor Feasibility i36 Nuclear waste reduction by reprocessing Nuclear waste per kilowatt-hour Volume reduction concept Misconception Flaws Fallacy Least hazardous treatment Summary Historic motive for reprocessing Hydrogen isotopes Fusion principle Moving target Challenges Tritium supply Materials Radioactive waste Energy balance Uranium Do the uranium resources set a limit to the expansion of nuclear power? Uranium occurrences Industrial view on resources Thermodynamic quality of uranium resources Depletion of uranium resources Energy cliff Energy cliff over time New discoveries of uranium resources Unconventional uranium resources Mineralogical barrier Uranium from seawater Fundamentals Which fundamental phenomena and scientific laws are important to know with respect to the deployment of nuclear power? Which consequences has one of the most fundamental laws of nature, the Second Law of thermodynamics, for the sustainability of nuclear power? Thermodynamics Energy First Law Spontaneous changes Entropy Second Law Potential energy Useful energy System and system boundaries Definition of entropy Entropy changes Observable anthropogenic entropy effects in the biosphere Ordered materials, functionality and entropy Fallacy of economic growth i41 Consequencess of the Second Law Validity of the Second Law Visibility of the consequences on global scale Principle of the Second Law Probability and the Second Law Heat engines Separation processes Coupled systems Ordered materials: reliability and energy investments Mineral energy sources are not sustainable Declining thermodynamic quality of mineral resources Photosynthesis in the biosphere, spontaneous order from chaos? i42 Limitations of separation processes Separation processes Purification Extraction of uranium Enrichment of uranium Reprocessing i43 Nuclear power and the Second Law Chemical pollution Radioactive pollution Thermodynamic quality of uranium ores Separation processes Inherently safe nuclear power is inherently impossible Latent entropy Materials soecifications Advanced nuclear concepts Nuclear power cannot be not sustainable Physical sustainability criteria Constant flow and constant quality No contribution to the entropy of the biosphere Potential capacity Uncertainties in dose estimates Uncertainties in risk estimates Troublesome detection of radionuclides Inherently limited significance of models Why not start from empirical evidence? Concluding remarks and questions i46 How indispensable is nuclear power? Promoted image Cheap Climate change Clean and safe Energy security Zero-entropy energy, ZEE Nuclear power is a dead-end road |
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